As the global M&A landscape reawakens, 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year for dealmaking across industries and geographies. Goldman Sachs’ latest 2025 M&A Outlook highlights key catalysts transforming the market—ranging from AI-driven investment to cross-border mega deals and sponsor-led simplification. While regulatory and monetary constraints continue to pose challenges, the overall sentiment is one of cautious optimism as capital markets unlock new potential for corporate growth and transformation.
Whether you’re a corporate executive, private equity investor, or strategic advisor, understanding the macro trends and sector-specific dynamics in M&A is critical. This blog breaks down the top themes shaping global mergers and acquisitions in 2025—and how to position your business to capitalize on them.
1. Macroeconomic Clarity Is Reinvigorating Corporate M&A
After a sluggish 2023, corporate M&A is gaining momentum, thanks in large part to easing regulatory uncertainty and more predictable monetary policy. With interest rate hikes plateauing and inflation pressures cooling, corporate buyers are returning to the table with renewed confidence.
Key Stats:
- Corporate buyers accounted for 71% of deal activity through Q3 2024.
- $10B+ “mega-deals” were up 26% YoY globally, with 43% growth in EMEA.
- CEO optimism is trending upward, especially amid expectations of pro-business regulatory shifts.
As corporates seek to refresh portfolios and capitalize on undervalued assets, deal volume is expected to climb further—particularly in the U.S., Europe, and key emerging markets like India and Japan.
2. Simplification Goes Global: Spin-Offs and Carve-Outs Accelerate
A wave of corporate simplification is sweeping across industries, with conglomerates shedding non-core units and refocusing on core growth engines. In 2024, more than 50% of all global separation announcements occurred outside the U.S., highlighting this as a truly global phenomenon.
Notable Examples:
- 3M spun off its healthcare business into Solventum Corp.
- Anglo American announced plans to divest its steelmaking coal business in Australia for up to $4.9B.
- In EMEA, spin-off activity has doubled over the last decade.
Simplification doesn’t just improve operational agility—it also boosts transparency, unlocks hidden value, and sharpens the equity story for investors. Post-separation, companies are more likely to engage in M&A, with 40% pursuing transactions within two years.
3. Sponsors Shift from Deployment to Exit Mode
Private equity sponsors are entering a new chapter. After years of stockpiling dry powder, 2025 will be all about liquidity—exit strategies, DPI optimization, and return of capital to LPs.
What’s Driving the Shift?
- DPI levels are at their lowest since 2008.
- Over 1,200 portfolio companies with $1B+ in EV are expected to exit via sale or IPO within 2–3 years.
- Sponsor-led M&A rose 23% YoY in Q3 2024, with sponsor-to-sponsor deals up 54%.
Sponsors are also adopting innovative liquidity tools—continuation funds, minority stake sales, and co-control deals—to bridge the valuation gap and navigate a more disciplined buyer market.
4. AI-Powered M&A: The Stack is the Strategy
Artificial Intelligence is not just a buzzword—it’s driving transformative deal activity across the Infrastructure, Platform, and Application layers of the tech stack. Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, and Google are pouring billions into AI infrastructure, while enterprise software companies are aligning themselves to capitalize on this tectonic shift.
AI Stack Highlights:
- $200B already spent on AI infrastructure; projected to reach $1T by 2026.
- Infrastructure M&A focused on data centers, power, and semiconductors.
- Platform-level deals target generative AI integration into enterprise workflows.
- Application-layer M&A is expected to surge with the rise of agentic AI.
Notable Deals:
- IBM’s acquisition of HashiCorp to build an AI-optimized cloud platform.
- Blackstone’s acquisition of AirTrunk, APAC’s largest data center platform.
- Salesforce’s acquisition of Own, enhancing enterprise data protection and insight generation.
As valuations adjust and adoption accelerates, expect AI to be one of the most active themes in 2025 dealmaking.
5. Cross-Border M&A Is Back—and Bigger Than Ever
After years of geopolitical friction and supply chain shocks, 2024 saw a sharp rebound in cross-border M&A. Flows between the U.S. and Europe led the way, while Asia-Pacific—especially Japan and India—emerged as hotbeds of inbound and outbound deal activity.
Highlights:
- North America & EMEA: $267B in deal value.
- APAC & North America: $152B.
- India: M&A volumes spiked thanks to governance reforms and government-backed economic policies.
- Japan: Deal volumes up 30% YoY.
Companies are leveraging valuation arbitrage, corporate governance reforms, and macroeconomic momentum to engage in value-accretive international deals.
6. Activist Investors are Fueling—and Fueled By—M&A
Activist investors are sharpening their focus on corporate simplification and M&A as key levers for unlocking shareholder value. Nearly one-third of 2024 activist campaigns targeted companies with $10B+ in market cap. With interest rates stabilizing, a broader swath of activist funds is expected to become more aggressive in 2025.
Key Trends:
- “Swarming” is on the rise—1 in 12 S&P 500 companies faced multiple activists in 2024.
- ~40% of activist demands since 2022 have been M&A- or spin-off-related.
- Activism now increasingly targets SpinCos, underlining the importance of capital structure and governance post-separation.
7. Take-Private Transactions are Surging—Especially in Europe
Take-private deals remain a favored route for deploying capital, particularly for sponsors looking to avoid public market scrutiny. Lower public company valuations and easing rate environments have created a golden window for take-privates.
2024 Take-Private Stats:
- Represented 30% of total sponsor buy-side volume.
- +21% YoY globally, +84% YoY in the UK.
- Most momentum seen in the technology sector, especially in EMEA.
This trend is expected to persist as more public companies seek shelter from market volatility and sponsors look for scalable platforms to grow privately.
8. Sector Outlook: Where the Deals Will Be in 2025
Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT):
The AI arms race continues, driving M&A in semiconductors, cloud infrastructure, and enterprise software. Expect a wave of consolidation among firms building vertical-specific AI applications.
Healthcare:
Spin-offs (like 3M’s healthcare unit) and capability-driven acquisitions are expected to dominate, particularly in medtech and digital health.
Financial Services:
Fintech valuations have reset, opening the door for both incumbent banks and private equity firms to acquire disruptive platforms.
Industrial and Consumer:
Simplification and portfolio reshuffling remain in focus. ESG considerations are also influencing M&A in energy and natural resources.
Final Thoughts: Seize the M&A Moment in 2025
The global M&A market is on the cusp of a multi-year rebound, with 2025 expected to be a breakout year for strategic growth, portfolio transformation, and cross-border investment. Whether through AI-driven acquisitions, sponsor-led take-privates, or activist-accelerated simplifications, dealmakers across sectors and regions are poised to capitalize on renewed confidence and macro clarity.
If you’re considering M&A in 2025, ask yourself:
- Is your capital structure optimized for dealmaking?
- Are you ready to simplify or spin off underperforming units?
- Can you integrate AI into your growth strategy?
- Are you prepared to navigate activist pressure?
For corporates, sponsors, and advisors alike, now is the time to act boldly, think globally, and align your strategy with the new wave of opportunity.
Also published on Medium.